Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France
Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 15 (2020), article no. 40.

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source EDP Sciences

A mathematical model has been developed to study the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. To calibrate the model, data from the French Public Health Agency were examined. The spread of the epidemic greatly depends on lockdown measures (referred to in France as ‘confinement’). The aim of this paper is to predict the expected evolution of the epidemic based on the various possible scenarios for ending the lockdown. The spread of the disease, and its re-emergence, will be determined by these scenarios.
DOI : 10.1051/mmnp/2020031

Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron 1

1 University of Bordeaux, GREThA, 16 avenue Léon Duguit,CS 50057, 33608 Pessac Cedex, France.
@article{MMNP_2020_15_a14,
     author = {Emmanuelle Augeraud-V\'eron},
     title = {Lifting the {COVID-19} lockdown: different scenarios for {France}},
     journal = {Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena},
     eid = {40},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {15},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1051/mmnp/2020031},
     language = {en},
     url = {https://geodesic-test.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp/2020031/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron
TI  - Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France
JO  - Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena
PY  - 2020
VL  - 15
PB  - mathdoc
UR  - https://geodesic-test.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp/2020031/
DO  - 10.1051/mmnp/2020031
LA  - en
ID  - MMNP_2020_15_a14
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron
%T Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France
%J Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena
%D 2020
%V 15
%I mathdoc
%U https://geodesic-test.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp/2020031/
%R 10.1051/mmnp/2020031
%G en
%F MMNP_2020_15_a14
Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron. Lifting the COVID-19 lockdown: different scenarios for France. Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 15 (2020), article  no. 40. doi : 10.1051/mmnp/2020031. https://geodesic-test.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp/2020031/

[1] C.L. Althaus Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) duringthe 2014 outbreak in West Africa PLoS Curr 2014

[2] J. Arino, F. Brauer, P. Van Den Driessche, J. Watmough, J. Wu Simple models for containment of a pandemic J. R. Soc. Interface 2006 453 457

[3] J. Arino, F. Brauer, P. Van Den Driessche, J. Watmough, J. Wu A final size relation for epidemic models Math. Biosci. Eng 2007 159

[4] F. Brauer Early estimates of epidemic final sizes J. Biol. Dyn 2019 23 30

[5] F. Brauer The final size of a serious epidemic Bull. Math. Biol 2019 869 877

[6] G. Chowell, N.W. Hengartner, C. Castillo-Chavez, P.W. Fenimore, J.M. Hyman The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda J. Theor. Biol 2004 119 126

[7] A.B. Gumel, S. Ruan, T. Day, J. Watmough, F. Brauer, P. Van Den Driessche, J. Wu Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B 2004 2223 2232

[8] N. Ferguson, D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin and A. Dighe, Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcaredemand (2020).

[9] M. Fournier, F. D'Arripe-Longueville, C. Rovere, C.S. Easthope, L. Schwabe, J. El Methni, R. Radel Effects of circadian cortisol on the development of a health habit Health Psychol 2017 1059

[10] Z. Liu, P. Magal, O. Seydi, G. Webb Understanding unreported cases in the 2019-nCov epidemic outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the importance of major public health interventions MPDI Biol 2020 50

[11] Z. Liu, P. Magal, O. Seydi and G. Webb, Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2002.12298 (2020).

[12] P. Magal and G. Webb, Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany. Italy, France and Germany, March 19, 2020.

[13] A. Mignon Colombet and D. Floreancig, L'infraction de “mise en danger d'autrui” est à manier avec précaution, Tribune, Le Monde, 25 mars 2020.

[14] P. Van Den Driessche, J. Watmough Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission Math. Biosci 2002 29 48

[15] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_France.

[16] J. Zhang, M. Litvinova, Y. Liang, Y Wang, W. Wang, S. Zhao, M. Ajelli Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China Science 2020 1481 1486

Cité par Sources :